A Precipitation Forecasting Model for Texas Based on the State of ENSO and PDO

As of 2010, it is estimated that 10.5 million people live along the trans -national Rio Grande (RGV) with 83% of the population residing in Mexico and several of the fastest growing cities in the U.S. (SandovalSolis et al., 2013). Historically, agricultural irrigation has been the largest water consumer for each country accounting for 86% of total consumption (Sandoval-Solis et al., 2013). Urbanization has been rapid on both sides of the border as maquiladoras have spurred economic growth in Mexican cities, and increased trade has caused similar changes in the U.S. Severe freezes in 1983 and 1989 destroyed thousands of acres of citrus, much of which were not re-planted, further encouraging the ruralto-urban land use change (Stubbs et al., 2003) Due to its semi-arid to arid climate and reliance on irrigated agriculture, water scarcity is a significant issue which makes the region particularly vulnerable to water shortages during periods of drought. Natural drought events are departures from the normal climate of a region and can be difficult to describe due to variation in intensity and duration of events. In the RGV, drought can also be anthropogenic, when water availability is limited due to pollution associated with the rapid industrialization of the region (Jones, 2000) or non-compliance of treaty mandated minimum flows (although the latter is due to management decisions made in response to natural drought).